Friday, February 4, 2011

Unstable Climate Kicking In

Climate change skeptics continue to clutch at straws, and come up with excuses for each new drought, fire, flood, cyclone happening in Australia and around the rest of the world.

But every year shows the climate is less stable than the year before. Climate scientists have been saying for years that if we don’t cut our carbon emissions we would get more severe droughts, bushfires, floods and cyclones. And this is exactly what is happening. The droughts of 2002 to 2009 devastated the Murray-Darling Basin and Australian agriculture. The Black Saturday Victorian bushfires of 2009 cost 173 lives and $4.4 billion. The 2011 Queensland and Victorian floods cost 36 lives. The Federal Government is finding $5.6 billion for reconstruction, and the damage to agriculture is over $2 billion and to mining $2.5 billion. Preliminary estimates of the damage from this week’s Cyclone Yasi are $1.5 billion.

These events are regarded as Australia’s worst droughts, worst fires, worst floods, and worst cyclone on record. But thinking about them as one in one hundred year events is foolish and misleading.

If we think these things aren’t going to happen for another hundred years we are living in a fool’s paradise. What the climate science is telling us is that these things are going to happen now much more often, and that future droughts, bushfires, floods and cyclones will be worse than these ones, unless the world cuts its carbon emissions. For example, the journal Nature has found a significant increase in cyclones in the north Atlantic since the 1970s. The warmer the ocean the stronger the cyclones that develop. The Bureau of Meteorology says the sea surface temperature in Australia’s northern tropics was easily at its highest December level in more than 100 years of records last year.

We ignore the lessons of this weather instability at our peril. The cost of the droughts, bushfires, floods and cyclones is massive. It is clear that the costs of inaction on weather instability will exceed the costs of action. We need to stop the rise in carbon emissions in Australia and globally, and reduce Australia’s emissions and global emissions, as fast as we possibly can.

Future generations will not thank us if we bequeath to them a world of Yasis, Lockyer Valley floods, and Black Saturdays.

8 comments:

  1. Hitting the nail on the head there, Kelvin. Thanks for your continued advocacy in this area.

    The lesson for your government is to make sure the carbon price you legislate is sufficient to start making some real cuts in our emissions.

    And also to recognise that there are a number of things that a carbon price will not accomplish on its own, such as driving strong investment in large-scale renewables.

    We will need programs such as feed-in tariffs and renewable energy targets if we want to have an energy infrastructure we can afford to run as climate risk is fully priced in.

    If we want to avoid the horrible legacy you mention, these measures need to be seen by the government as equally essential to a carbon price.

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  2. Spot on Kelvin. Well said - although it has been disheartening to see the ALP Government pulling climate policies to pay the clean up bill for the recent floods.

    Australia has a pollution dependent economy, and here in Victoria we're reliant on dirty power stations such as Hazelwood - the dirtiest power station in Australia. We need a strong policy to cut pollution from your government to help us move to a clean energy economy, and unlock investment and innovation in new industries, technologies, and jobs.

    But we need a policy that works - not one that props up our biggest polluters to keep polluting. The key test of any Gillard Govt action to cut pollution is whether it replaces our dirtiest power stations like Hazelwood with clean energy for the future.

    Victoria
    Coburg

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  3. Now many Australians have had the experience of being climate change climate change refugees.

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  4. Putting a price on carbon is cruel and will hit hard on families using gas, petrol and electricity. The big mining corporations will continue to make mega profits but families and individuals will have their livelihoods and lifestyles attacked. Beyond Zero Emissions have a scheme for 100% renewable energy by 2020, but it is being ignored by our government and Opposition. Obviously the oil and mining companies have a strong strangle-hold on governments. It's time they made a decision for the voters, for families and not just the big end of town. GDP-driven growth is clearly unsustainable.

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  5. Is it to early to suggest that QLD, and indeed the nation, would be in far less difficult economic circumstances now if Beatty and Bligh had not had their feet on the population growth accelerator for the past 10 years?

    Bigger populations = bigger natural disasters = bigger repair bills.

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  6. Yes, exactly Kelvin. The sceptics/deniers can now justifiably be accused of 'obdurate stupidity'. The evidence is in and we must now turn the situation around - and soon! We have to fund those solar programs recently scrapped, introduce a carbon price (it may need to be $50/tonne), and keep coal in the ground. Drastic action is required to keep global warming to less than 2 degrees C. Anything above that will lead to runaway climate change.

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  7. It is important that you continue to tell the story of increasingly unstable climate and the associated risks that include climate refugees, rising food prices and environmental tipping points.

    Importantly you also have to become an advocate for sustainability in your community.

    I came to your office in early 2010 to explain what it was like to work within the federally-funded Green Loans program. I thought the best way for you to understand the workings of the program was for you to have your house assessed.

    As our federal member you were in fact responsible for this program as well as the botched insulation scheme. These schemes if properly managed had the capacity to substantially reduce household emissions and provide for green jobs.

    I have respect for your intelligence and integrity and saw no reason why you wouldn't involve yourself in a program that your government was managing. My request was relegated to your staff.

    If you are to use your position to advocate for a reduction in carbon emission it follows that you must also provide an example of how to successfully reduce emissions both in your personal and political life.

    If you do not maintain your personal integrity then your discourse becomes hollow rhetoric.

    I would like to think that you were better than that. Continue advocating for change while taking responsibility for your own actions.

    David

    ReplyDelete
  8. It is important that you continue to tell the story of increasingly unstable climate and the associated risks that include climate refugees, rising food prices and environmental tipping points.

    Importantly you also have to become an advocate for sustainability in your community.

    I came to your office in early 2010 to explain what it was like to work within the federally-funded Green Loans program. I thought the best way for you to understand the workings of the program was for you to have your house assessed.

    As our federal member you were in fact responsible for this program as well as the botched insulation scheme. These schemes if properly managed had the capacity to substantially reduce household emissions and provide for green jobs.

    I have respect for your intelligence and integrity and saw no reason why you wouldn't involve yourself in a program that your government was managing. My request was relegated to your staff.

    If you are to use your position to advocate for a reduction in carbon emission it follows that you must also provide an example of how to successfully reduce emissions both in your personal and political life.

    If you do not maintain your personal integrity then your discourse becomes hollow rhetoric.

    I would like to think that you were better than that. Continue advocating for change while taking responsibility for your own actions.

    David

    ReplyDelete