The first problem was
that the while the headline screamed "Licence freeze fails to dent
crime" the report itself made no reference to crime rates at all! The
second problem was that while the report referred to a jump in ambulance call
outs, it assumed that the only factor influencing ambulance call out rates was
liquor licences. This was a logical fallacy that a Year 10 student would
readily identify.
The fallacy was brought
home in a big way just two days later, when this morning's Age reported that
demand for illegal narcotics such as ice is growing at breakneck speed. This
time the facts were very much in evidence – use and possession offences for all
drugs have skyrocketed by 68 per cent in the last five years. The highest rate
of offences by a mile is in Melbourne City, the 3000 postcode, which in 2013/14
had 898 drug use and possession offences and 288 drug production offences.
Given such an increase
it is entirely foreseeable that the rate of ambulance call outs in inner
Melbourne would have risen. We can only guess at what the rate would have been
if successive State Governments hadn't restricted the issuing of new liquor
licences and the amount of alcohol being served after 1 am.
No doubt we need to do more to tackle the ice epidemic. But allowing more liquor to be served in the early hours of the morning will not make Melbourne a safer or better place to live in – quite the opposite.
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